Bill's Focus

our comfort may be disrupted

While we watch the horrible soap opera of American politics play out, we ignore the basics of life. There are enormous challenges right now that should dominate the discussions in the public square. Today I present a very simple one.

The demand for electricity is about to be greater than the supply. Please let that sink in. How would you feel if there was a blackout right now? How would you feel if there were scheduled blackouts as emergency conservation measures?

From “Seeking Alpha” – an investment/stock market newsletter:
More than half of the U.S. is at increased risk of power supply shortfalls in the next 5-10 years that could lead to outages and electricity conservation measures, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said in a recent report.

As U.S. power consumption rises from data centers and the electrification of buildings and transportation, efforts to add electricity generation have fallen short, creating a rising imbalance between supply and demand, NERC said in its annual Long-Term Reliability Assessment.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which operates the electrical grid in 15 states, was at high risk of shortfalls even at normal peak demand periods, NERC said, while other grid operators including PJM Interconnection, ISO New England, and operators in Texas and California are at elevated risk in which shortfalls may happen during extreme heat or cold.

The report recognized confirmed generator retirements totaling 52 GW by 2029 and 78 GW through 2034, but announced retirements that have not begun the formal deactivation processes would push the total expected retirements to 115 GW in the next decade.

NERC has warned about the pace of generator retirements and the changing resource mix, but its latest report said conditions are becoming more urgent as demand forecasts increase and resource additions decline.

I am reading some science fiction as an escape from the insanity of reinstalling a racist rapist con man traitor as president – again. In the book, set thousands of years from now, humanity is searching for an alternative planet. Earth has been destroyed by warring factions – science “believers” vs “naturalists”. A new planet has been discovered. But it is populated with very large intelligent spiders who have an efficient cooperative society. The humans on the spaceship are fighting each other. They are firing guns that threaten the ship’s integrity. They are the last of humanity.

But back to reality. Ask yourself just how intelligent American leaders are right now as they battle each other for control. How will we feel when the lights go out? The rich will have generators or be on priority power lines (like those that feed hospitals). They’ll be OK. What’s our plan to stay warm or survive 100+ degree heat?

This is not a concern about the sources of electricity – renewable vs fossil fuel based. It is a reality based fear that there will not be enough electricity for everyone. Soon.

But no, let’s just keep bickering about whether billionaires or bigoted bible thumping nutcases should run the country. And now back to my book. I like the spiders.

Here is the full report from the NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corporation): https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_Long%20Term%20Reliability%20Assessment_2024.pdf


https://seekingalpha.com/news/4391284-more-than-half-of-us-at-high-risk-of-power-shortages-in-next-decade-report-says?mailingid=38008469&messageid=2900&serial=38008469.3478&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=38008469.3478