It is possible to experience anger, fear, astonishment and joy at the same time. That was my Saturday April 20, 2024.
Most Americans and lovers of democracy around the world were thrilled that our House of Representatives finally passed legislation in support of Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The bills will head to the Senate and to President Biden’s desk in short order. Finally.
Makes me proud most of the time
My reaction was one of relief and renewed hope for Ukraine. Stopping Putin’s theft of a neighbor’s sovereignty is essential. But I also couldn’t suppress my fury that such an obvious effort to support the world order would take so long. Since last fall, Russian forces have gained the advantage as Ukrainian fighters have run out of materiel – artillery shells, ammunition and air cover. The delay kneecapped our ally. Putin was able to deliver devastating blows to railroads and electric power plants. Americans let that happen. Why?
Mariupol
There is a direct line that connects the leader of our House of Representatives to Donald Trump who admires Vladimir Putin – who has always played the long game. Remember that Trump told Johnson to kill the Border Security Bill that was negotiated in the Senate by a bipartisan group – the bill Republicans wanted in order approve Ukraine and Israel funding. Trump didn’t want Biden to have a victory. Trump is running a shadow government. No other American former president has done that. I call it treason.
House Leader Mike Johnson has now been “allowed” to support the funding of Ukraine’s resistance. His master(s) has determined that further obstruction would be politically counter productive. American support for Ukraine is very strong. A presidential candidate who opposes it risks losing an election. And so, in the most cynical strategic way, Johnson was told to bring the bills up for a vote.
Johnson is being regarded as some sort of legislative hero. I think he is a puppet.
I continued my day feeling that mix of emotions. Mostly excited about America redeeming itself. We had previously planned to meet some friends for dinner. The eatery was an old friendly place. Lots of dark wood and leather booths – perfect for four people to actually hear each other over the usual dining room din. This place fosters conversation. The food and the company were great.
Mine was an 8 oz angus with blue cheese and caramelized onions
A server with a smile approached the booth promptly. Always a good sign. Drinks were served quickly. She recited the “specials”. My wife asked her where her “lovely accent” came from. She said Ukraine. A chill ran down my spine. How could this be happening on the day that America finally regained its footing? And how would I have felt if we had dined out the week before?
Not Anna – stock photo that works
My wife asked “Anna” more questions. ”How many languages do you speak?” She cheerfully responded “Four – Ukrainian, Russian, English and Polish”. Then she asked “Do you have family in Ukraine?” ”Just my mother. She lives near the Russian border.” Can you get her to America? ”She won’t leave. She considers herself a patriot”.
I went to sleep last night with less cynicism in mind. My thoughts were dominated by the face of the smiling server and our mutual sense of celebration. We had raised a glass to her and to Ukraine. And we wished her mother well…
Budmo!
And, I did promise some of you more puppy pictures. Here are “Peaches” and “Maeve” in a rare quiet moment. usually they are wrestling.
DNA reveals they are mostly Australian Cattle dogs. But they are rescues from Tennessee.
The amazing Andy Borowitz is now on Substack. If you like your humor a little twisted and mildly sarcastic, subscribe. It’s free unless you want to comment or restack. I couldn’t resist sharing this one. So I stole it for you. Sorry about the photo. But it’s part of the message.
NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report)—Prominent legal experts believe that defendants who are innocent of a crime will usually do everything humanly possible to delay their trials.
Professor Davis Logsdon, who teaches a course about the behavior of innocent defendants at the University of Minnesota Law School, said that “if a defendant is strenuously trying to have his trial delayed, there is no clearer evidence that he is innocent of all charges against him.”
“Generally speaking, people who have done nothing wrong want to push the day when their name is cleared as far into the future as they can,” he said. “They will spend a massive amount on legal fees to have a cloud of suspicion hover over them for as long as possible.”
He said that there are “other signs” that a person is “completely innocent,” including “claiming immunity from all charges, defaming the judge and his or her children, and calling the trial a ‘disgrace’ or a ‘witch-hunt.’”
“If someone does all of those things, it’s so obvious he’s innocent that the case should be dismissed immediately,” he said. “The fact that such a trial is allowed to proceed is worrisome proof that our legal system is broken.”
On a more serious note, Robert Reich wrote a good letter todaythat is a message for you to share with others who are worried that Monday’s trial is the minor one – because it’s “just” about having an affair with a porn star while he was married. It is not about paying “hush money”. The trial is all about “election interference”. Surprise! More fraud. 34 counts.
There is an endless public duel between pollsters and pundits. Recent polls suggest this or that. Biden is having trouble in swing states (that’s why they call them “swing states”). Trump is losing his iron grip on the Republicans (large numbers voted for Haley who had already quit). The analysis is non-stop and numbing. As so many have said, the presidential campaign has been reduced to a horse race and the production of eyeball grabbing headlines.
The polling process at its core is flawed and is a bogus industry. With apologies to both of the Nates, your profession is a con. It’s just a game of driving advertising dollars to your hosts. Polling is an effort to find the rage on the page – to capture our attention.
The only polling that will mean ANYTHING will occur on November 5th.
Here is why:
We were nervous but fairly confident the confidence man couldn’t win. Even he was shocked when it happened.
If you click on this link, you will see what the polling suggested all through the election year. On August 15, 2016 Nate Silver of “538” fame had Hillary Clinton at 88.8%
And as late as November 8th, 2016, Nate had predicted that Hillary Clinton would win with 71.3 % of the vote. Nate Silver was considered a polling genius.
I take issue with the polling for a couple of other reasons. First, the technique is suspect. The survey is too small and unrepresentative. Who are they asking and how? Have you ever been surveyed about the presidential election? If so, how? Landline? (who still has one?) Do you answer calls on your cell from strange numbers? Internet questions? (those click bait traps?). There is no accurate way to represent public sentiment as a whole except at the voting booth.
Second, unforeseen events can tip the balance at any moment. Just ask James Comey. And this idea is a bit dark, but still a potential reality. Statistically, based on their age, odds are that either one of the candidates could be dead or disabled by November. Harsh, I know. But if one is still around (like me) at that age, we could consider ourselves in the “bonus years”.
Why does America make voting such a challenge?
And there is another dark side of all this “guessing” (polling). If your candidate looks like a likely winner based on all the prognostications – and your enthusiasm is low – you might just decide to take the day off and go fishing rather than stand in line to vote. What difference will it make? Well…if you had taken that approach in November 2016, look at the results.
My message is clear: ignore the polls, ignore the pundits. Vote like your freedom depends on it. Because it does. If you are a woman, you know that. If you still have doubts, Google Project 2025 and read how the MAGA folks want to establish a fascist republic. You might like it if you are a white “christian” nationalist/supremacist who denies the human impact on our climate.
Postscript: Harry Truman was a remarkable person and one of our most important presidents. I came to those conclusions by reading David McCullough’s “Truman”. Highly recommend!
Postscript Plus: New puppies for the grandchildren! Australian Cattle dog rescues. Sisters from Tennessee. Provided by the Great Dog Rescue of New England.
“Maeve”
The name Maeve is of Irish origin – meaning “intoxicating” or “she who rules”.
“Peaches”
Peaches is the name you get when the almost three year old in the family gets to choose the name. So Peaches it is.
If we push hard. If we encourage. If we urge. If we drive. If we unite. If we coalesce around saving democracy from the forces of darkness – we will succeed at last. As Robert Hubbell says frequently: “We have every reason to be hopeful but not to be complacent.”
They have his size
Yes, it’s really frustrating that Donald Trump is still a free man. But karma is at work. Yes, it’s taking way too long. But the payback tsunami for the former Grifter in Chief is building. For now, here are some ways to cheer yourself up. First, check out my new T-Shirt! Available at “Custom Ink”.
Then start by reading Simon Rosenberg’s “Hopium” and why he is optimistic. After President Biden’s powerful State of the Union address, he leads Trump in several new polls. Simon beats the drum for democracy and regularly points out the weakness in the Republican campaign to dismantle it. And it IS weak and crumbling. Simon is a champion at messaging our excellent platform and agenda.
Competence and Commitment
Then consider reviewing this one”: “What did Joe Biden do today?” Need some talking points about what it’s like to be president – one who does stuff – not one who just golfs, watches TV and throws lunch against the wall? Actually doing the damned job? This substack offers daily recaps of all the positive activity that is related to Biden’s White House. It is amazing.
Writes a newsletter is dedicated to saving democracy
And maybe you are looking for another way to make a difference. I am sure most of you are fully aware of Jessica Craven’s “Chop Wood, Carry Water.” She offers us super easy ways to contact our Congress members on hot topics. And…she frequently gives us a recap of all the great stuff that has happened recently. And there is a lot of it!
Lastly, still worried about the election? We should be. But there are many moderate Republicans who don’t buy the MAGA madness and bullshit. They are not pro-Biden. But they ARE a coalition of anti-Trumpers. Anti-Trump Group of Republicans Lays Out $50 Million Plan of Attack. (no pay wall). The group, “Republican Voters Against Trump”, will run a series of homemade videos of Americans who voted for him in the past but say they can no longer do so in 2024.
Spread the word. “Dems Make Things Better.”
I believe that the first item on this T-Shirt will ultimately motivate enough Americans to reject the fascist MAGA agenda which is on full display in their “Project 2025”. American women will demand reproductive autonomy. “Dobbs” was THE biggest mistake of the MAGA movement.
Should a Chinese company own TikTok – the social media platform that has the most influence over two or three generations? Or should it be owned by American oligarchs who could operate it the way Musk operates Twitter? Sorry Elon, “X” is a silly name.
Do we really live in a matrix ?
Those questions are less important than whether and how we as a society begin to control the algorithms that feed rage instead of truth. ALL the social media platforms boost lies, conspiracy theories and rage in order to retain our eyeballs…so they can harvest our personal details and preferences. Which are sold to advertisers. It’s a brilliant business model but it feeds our darkest natures and angry impulses.
I suspect that governments across the world will make attempts to regulate this highly destructive – out of control – money grubbing corporate takeover of our consciousness. As usual, the EU will probably take the lead. But it will be clumsy and certainly challenged in the courts. Keep in mind that the money grubbers have many billions to protect their Frankensteins. The law firms are drooling at the opportunities.
Be there, Vote Blue, No matter Who
We just have our free will and votes. Will we use them effectively enough to reign in the titans of this diabolical dystopian scheme to monetize our every thought or impulse? And will we wake up and reclaim the money they have harvested?
We could do it peacefully
Oh well, it’s a really tough world. I know many of us are beginning to feel like peasants – serfs in this New Feudalism. Perhaps enough of us will look up from our phones, snap the tether of the Industrial Scale Invasion of our Brains – and rebel.
But for now let’s just look on the bright side…
Sing along if you wish!
Some things in life are bad They can really make you mad Other things just make you swear and curse When you’re chewing on life’s gristle Don’t grumble, give a whistle And this’ll help things turn out for the best And
Always look on the bright side of life Always look on the light side of life
If life seems jolly rotten There’s something you’ve forgotten And that’s to laugh and smile and dance and sing When you’re feeling in the dumps Don’t be silly chumps Just purse your lips and whistle, that’s the thing And
Always look on the bright side of life (Come on) Always look on the right side of life
For life is quite absurd And death’s the final word You must always face the curtain with a bow Forget about your sin Give the audience a grin Enjoy it, it’s your last chance anyhow
So always look on the bright side of death A just before you draw your terminal breath
Life’s a piece of shit When you look at it Life’s a laugh and death’s a joke, it’s true You’ll see it’s all a show Keep ’em laughin’ as you go Just remember that the last laugh is on you And
Always look on the bright side of life Always look on the right side of life (C’mon Brian, cheer up) Always look on the bright side of life Always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the bright side of life
I mean, what have you got to lose? You know, you come from nothing You’re going back to nothing What have you lost? Nothing
Always look on the right side of life
Nothing will come from nothing, ya know what they say Cheer up ya old bugga c’mon give us a grin (Always look on the right side of life)…
My wife caught this meme floating around Facebook.
Then I came across this.
When I was a very young man, I considered myself a “Conservative”. I believed in a strong defense against Russian aggression, individual rights (keep the government out of my private life), fiscal responsibility and a free enterprise system based on competition. There was always to be a solid wall between church and state. Some of you may remember how worried Republicans were that JFK would be taking his marching orders from the Pope.
I became disillusioned with the “right wing” as Vietnam unfolded as a war on a faulty assumption (also shared by JFK). Vietnam was not a “domino” to fall in the world wide expansion of Communism. The Vietnamese considered China just as big a threat as they did France and the United States. Today we are friends. They make our T-Shirts and phones. That trading could have started in the 70’s.
And then “Conservatives” began to blend with bible thumping bigots. (FYI, I believe there are many people who find the goodness in the Bible.) The party of individual rights wanted to invade our bedrooms and tell us who to sleep with. They wanted to keep Mom pregnant even if she had no plans or ability to raise another child. Dangerous abortions were the norm for the poor.
Fiscal responsibility? Since 1981, federal budget deficits have increased under Republican presidents Reagan, both Bushes and Trump, while deficits have declined under Democratic presidents Clinton and Obama. The economy ran surpluses during Clinton’s last four fiscal years, the first surpluses since 1969. The deficit was projected to decline sharply in Joe Biden’s first fiscal year. WIKI
Competition? The party of small business has been transformed into a puppet show for several oligarchies. They control everything from internet service to the food on our tables. Small farmers are going the way of dinosaurs. And those oligarchs place judges on our courts and buy our elections. More on that in a future letter.
And then there is the biggest betrayal that has been the conversion of “Conservatism”. We now have as Speaker of the House (second in line to the presidency) a man who has stated clearly that America should be based on “Christian values” (his values) – essentially establishing a national religion – a violation of our United States Constitution.
That, my friends, is the abbreviated version of how a word that has been used for centuries to represent “traditional values and incremental change” was bastardized into a pejorative. “Conservative” is now just a stepping stone to fascism.
BTW, how about that SOTU speech? I’d give it overall a 10. And maybe an 11 on the “crushing the heckling” scale.
You go, “Dark Brandon”
I can’t escape the irony that the danger to democracy is now coming from the south.
We were listening to a favorite Pandora station and this song popped up. I melted. It’s been so long since I listened to these lyrics. A stark contrast to all the bombastic news junk we are being flooded with.
Anyone who doesn’t seek peace suffers from a lack of imagination.
Imagine there’s no heaven It’s easy if you try No hell below us Above us, only sky
Imagine all the people Livin’ for today Ah
Imagine there’s no countries It isn’t hard to do Nothing to kill or die for And no religion, too
Imagine all the people Livin’ life in peace You
You may say I’m a dreamer But I’m not the only one I hope someday you’ll join us And the world will be as one
Imagine no possessions I wonder if you can No need for greed or hunger A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people Sharing all the world You
You may say I’m a dreamer But I’m not the only one I hope someday you’ll join us And the world will live as one
A Sunday reflection – no preaching, just a consideration. Anyone can imagine harmony and generosity. Anyone can imagine peace. Anyone can.
There is a lot of money available to fix this essential program
The Social Security program is approaching a crisis level because the Baby Boom generation is huge and retiring now. Which would not be a problem except the next generations are smaller. Many people opted out of having large families. Americans are not reproducing at a rate to replace themselves.
”In the US, the birth rate has been falling since the Great Recession, dropping almost 23 percent between 2007 and 2022. Today, the average American woman has about 1.6 children, down from three in 1950, and significantly below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 children needed to sustain a stable population.” Vox
This is a demographic disaster. Too many people withdrawing funds – not enough younger people putting money in.
This video explains the financial strain well. But it fails to provide solutions – offering only vague comments: “something needs to be done”. Good info, but feel free to keep scrolling.
One obvious way to bolster the Social Security fund is to remove the income cap. Why should anyone pay a smaller percentage of their income in Social Security taxes?
I like my money and I want to keep it!
”For 2023, the wage base was $160,200. So, if you earned more than $160,200 this last year, you won’t have to pay the Social Security payroll tax on the amount that exceeds that limit…94% of U.S. workers are paid less than $160,200 per year, so they pay the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax on all of the paychecks they receive in 2023. For millionaires, only about 1% or less of their total earnings go toward Social Security…”
Lots of jobs without enough workers
Another obvious solution to finding more tax revenue is to import more younger workers. Guess where we can find them! They are knocking at our door – at the border. We need MORE legal immigrants. More employees = more tax revenue.
Every American is a product of immigration. (Even indigenous American ancestors arrived here from somewhere else.) Why is there such opposition to continuing America’s long held tradition of providing opportunity for those who seek to live here? Why not invest in securing the border in a way that we can efficiently process the folks who are NOT a danger and who want to work hard?
Answer: Fear and Lies. And good ole bigotry. Hating as a way to make America great again.
All across America the economy is restrained by a lack of workers
Fear and Lie number one is that immigrants will take away our jobs. The MAGA media propels that falsehood daily. But read this from the US Chamber of Commerce – hardly a “lefty” organization:
“We hear every day from our member companies—of every size and industry, across nearly every state—they’re facing unprecedented challenges trying to find enough workers to fill open jobs. Right now, the latest data shows that we have 9.5 million job openings in the U.S., but only 6.5 million unemployed workers.
We have a lot of jobs, but not enough workers to fill them. If every unemployed person in the country found a job, we would still have nearly 3 million open jobs.”
Native born crook
Fear and Lie number two is that the people seeking to cross our border are criminals and they will escalate crime in the United States. Another Fox News talking point to stir fear in our hearts. It is a lie. Immigrants commit less crime than native born Americans. A lot less crime. But sensational stories like the one in the PBS Newshour below will reinforce the lie – unless we listen to and read the research. Start the video at about 17:00 to get the FULL story you won’t hear from the liars.
Here are some facts from the Cato Institute – another organization with solid right wing credentials (Chairman and CEO is Charles Koch): ”In 2018, the illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 782 per 100,000 illegal immigrants, 535 per 100,000 legal immigrants, and 1,422 per 100,000 native‐born Americans. The illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 45 percent below that of native‐born Americans in Texas.” ”There is more and more evidence that immigrants, regardless of legal status, are less likely to commit crimes than native‐born Americans. However, a substantial number of Americans still think that immigration increases crime. As more evidence builds over time, we can only hope that Americans respond by updating their opinions so that they fit the facts.”
Puppet and Puppeteer
And…guess what was in the bipartisan Immigration Bill passed by the Senate that was demanded by the House of Representatives? That bill that Trump told House “Leader” Mike Johnson to kill? Remind me, please. Which party supports “law and order” and funding for law enforcement? Apparently it isn’t the MAGA GOP.
Trump used Mike Johnson to kill a bill to address drug deaths
”The package also includes bipartisan sweeteners, including the FEND Off Fentanyl Act, which would target, sanction and block the financial assets of people involved in the fentanyl supply chain, from chemical suppliers in China to drug traffickers from Mexico. The anti-fentanyl bill is authored by the leaders of the Senate Banking Committee, Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Tim Scott, R-S.C., and it has support from 67 senators.” – NBC News recap of bi-partisan Senate approved bill We need more workers. We need more taxes. We need to propel our economy. We can do that and provide humanitarian assistance to people who are desperately escaping deadly circumstances at home. Nobody travels that far and through such dangerous circumstances for fun. Cartel gang violence and the difficulty of growing food due to the Climate Catastrophe are forcing them north. They need help and we need the help.
”The CBO has now factored in a previously unexpected surge in immigration that began in 2022, which the agency assumes will persist for several years. These immigrants are more likely to work than their native-born counterparts, largely because immigrants skew younger. This infusion of working-age immigrants will more than offset the expected retirement of the aging, native-born population.”
”As CBO Director Phill Swagel wrote in a note accompanying the forecasts: As a result of these immigration-driven revisions to the size of the labor force, “we estimate that, from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenues will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise.”
The support for a well managed and well funded immigration system comes from all ends of the political spectrum. From people who see the facts, the truth and shun the fear mongering. I am NOT advocating for an “open border”. I am recommending we spend some money to MANAGE the border properly. The bipartisan bill rejected by MAGA Mike Johnson would hire more border agents, provide better facilities, address the influx of fentanyl, and legally process people faster and more efficiently. It would get them into the workforce faster.
Ronald Reagan thanking the immigrant doctors who saved his life.
We need legal immigrants to do more than build houses, mow lawns and harvest our food. We need them in every field of endeavor.
“Thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we’re a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and always on the cutting edge, always leading the world to the next frontier. This quality is vital to our future as a nation. If we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.” – Ronald Reagan
Social Security and Medicare can be made solvent by taxing the rich fairly and fixing the border properly – admitting more needed people safely. This would simultaneously boost US productivity by filling job openings. It would add trillions to the economy and to our tax coffers. It would make the “Border Crisis” an opportunity. Fix the border. Fix the nation.
There is a lot of buzz around whether President Biden should run for re-election – or step aside and allow a brokered convention to pick a new candidate. It keeps bubbling up based on two major concerns. The US approach to the Gaza invasion and Biden’s age have prompted concern that younger voters may boycott Biden.
A recent piece in the NY Times by Ezra Klein has re-opened that can of worms. Klein does raise questions that should be answered. I wouldn’t call the article below a rebuttal. But it does answer FOR ME why we should all be “Ridin’ with Biden” without reservation from this day forward.
For the record, I wish Biden had established early last year that he would be a “transitional president” (he said that in 2020). There would have been time for the very deep bench of excellent potential candidates to compete and we would have had a new standard bearer to finance and campaign for. But it is way too late to turn back now. Forward ho with Joe.
Joe Biden is a really good president. He has accomplished more in this term than any president in my lifetime. Unfortunately, memories are short. Many of us have forgotten what life was like when Biden took office. What he inherited was a nightmare of a nightmare layered with horror after horror. Some of it was caused by the Pandemic. Much of it was caused by the recklessness of his thoroughly unqualified predecessor.
Read this and understand why there is no turning back. Back Biden. Back sanity, democracy and decency.
FOR SUBSCRIBERS FEBRUARY 24, 2024
Photo Illustration by Rachel Stern for The New York Times
In a recent episode of his podcast, my colleague Ezra Klein made the strongest case yet for replacing President Biden on the ticket with a new Democratic nominee. After listening to it, I disagreed with a few key points, and after discussing our differences, Ezra and I agreed that it would make sense to take this to the page, as it were.
A good part of the strength of Ezra’s case came from the fact that he anticipated the most significant objection to any push to remove Biden — namely, that there wouldn’t be enough time left to select a new nominee. To that, he said, the Democrats could choose a candidate at their convention this summer in Chicago.
Here was Ezra on how to use the convention process rather than a primary to choose the nominee:
The way we pick nominees now is still built around conventions. When someone wins a primary or a caucus, what he actually wins is delegate slots. How that works is different in different states. Then they go to the convention to choose the actual nominee.
The whole convention structure is still there. We still use it. It is still the delegates voting at the convention. What’s different now than in the past is that most delegates arrive at the convention committed to a candidate. But without getting too into the weeds of state delegate rules here, if their candidate drops out, if Biden drops out, they can be released to vote for who they want.
He went on to add that while one of the most infamous contested conventions ended in disaster — the 1968 Democratic convention, which was also held in Chicago — conventions have picked some of our greatest presidents, including Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt.
I should say that I am a strong skeptic of the idea that there is a viable path to replacing Biden as the nominee as long as he is capable and competent. Ezra’s case was persuasive, but I think he underrated the real odds that a brokered convention would end in political disaster for the Democratic Party.
Yes, the convention process still exists. There are still delegates and voting, and it continues to be possible to have a contested convention where the party chooses a nominee. The fact that we call this modern process a convention, however, does not mean that it is the same process as the one that chose nominees from roughly 1831 to 1968.
A large reason: The American party system of the past half-century is not the same system as the half-century before that. The political parties themselves were different, and their relationship to democratic legitimacy was different as well.
There was no expectation that ordinary voters would confer legitimacy on a presidential nominee. The delegates were not selected by direct vote as representatives of individual candidates so much as they were representatives of state party organizations and political machines.
And so when we say that the Democratic Party nominated Roosevelt for president in 1932, what we mean is that a somewhat unwieldy coalition of state and regional political organizations — tied together by history, a few broadly held ideals and, more concretely, patronage — gathered to hash out their differences and settle on a candidate who could best represent them on a national field.
The critical point is that there were no binding primaries or caucuses or other forms of democratic contest. Roosevelt campaigned in the sense that his allies lobbied delegates for their support, but this was fundamentally a closed process.
With no expectation of popular legitimacy in the operation of internal party decisions, delegates representing their machines and organizations could bargain and negotiate with relative freedom. Once a nominee was chosen, voters would accept him, and the election would be held.
In the 1960s, the elitism of this system — the fact that it reliably chose insiders — clashed with the democratic and anti-establishment ethos of the youngest voters. The result is that the old convention process ended, with a bang, in 1968. When Democrats convened to choose a nominee in 1972, they did so under a new system in which the chief currency was democratic legitimacy and candidates would run highly public campaigns geared toward national audiences rather than state electorates.
We have had this new system for more than 50 years. Although the rules of the Democratic convention allow for something that looks like the old system, the modern convention process is not actually equipped to confer legitimacy on nominees the way it could in the past. A great deal of that legitimacy comes from the democratic process — from the fact that modern candidates must campaign for votes from the public.
And the public, in turn, wants to feel that it has a direct say in the selection of a nominee. There is also a practical advantage to our current system: It is much easier for a candidate to claim leadership of the party when he or she has won the most votes.
This is all to say that an attempt to hold an open, brokered convention would immediately run into the basic issue that no candidate would be able to claim any kind of democratic legitimacy, especially if the delegates were free agents unaccountable to the public. The nominee who would come out of this process would have little basis, given the norms since 1968, to say that he or she was any better or more viable than any other candidate. The odds of alienating large parts of the Democratic Party coalition would be just as large as the odds of finding an able and competent nominee.
That is especially the case when you consider the question of Vice President Kamala Harris. Ezra said that she was an underrated political talent and that there was a decent chance she would win the nomination in a brokered convention. But I think it is important to consider a scenario in which she wouldn’t.
In the modern era, a vice president who wants his or her party’s nomination for president must truly compete for it. This is a democratic competition: The voters, not the insiders, matter most. It would be one thing if Harris lost a democratic campaign to be the next nominee. The victor in that contest, after all, would have the legitimacy that came with winning the most votes. It would be something else entirely if Harris lost in a convention fight.
The view, for many Democratic voters, wouldn’t be that Harris lost a fair fight. The view would be that Harris — a loyal deputy to the president — was rejected by insiders who represented no one but themselves. Why, voters might ask, did insiders decline to elevate the vice president in this circumstance? Why was Harris, Biden’s handpicked successor, pushed to the side?
It is entirely possible that this wouldn’t fracture the Democratic coalition. It is entirely possible that Democratic voters would accept the results of a brokered convention, whatever they are. But I would not count on that outcome. It would be difficult for the Democratic Party to win the November election with an unpopular incumbent at the top of the ticket. It would be even more difficult to do so with a divisive nominee — who had neither earned the votes of Democratic voters nor weathered the vetting process of a primary campaign — and a fractured coalition.
The thing about a brokered convention, in other words, is that there would be no guarantee the party would get a better nominee than Biden. No guarantee that the nominee would not have serious baggage of his or her own. No guarantee that the process wouldn’t fracture the Democratic coalition. And no guarantee that the party would not end up weaker than where it started. ————————————————————— For thoughts on what Biden and his administration has accomplished please read The Hopium Chronicles by Simon Rosenberg. Use Simon’s facts and figures to speak to those younger folks who need convincing. It IS a choice between democracy and fascism. Not voting for Joe is allowing fascism to reign. No discussion. Period.
There are equal odds that whatever we predict will happen – won’t.
The media is obsessing over the November 5th “match up” between President Biden and former President Trump. Reporters constantly run stories about polls. It feels like a horse race that will never end. Every little glitch or gaffe is a “breaking news” alert. All of this is more than irritating. It is a waste of our precious time.
Everything the pundits predict is just a guess. How many of the events of the last few years were predicted?
October 7, 2023
Hamas terrorists from Gaza would commit an atrocity against Israeli Jews that was larger and worse than anything since the Holocaust. Netanyahu would respond in the manner he has – and still be Israel’s leader.
The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000
Russia would invade Ukraine and reduce cities to cinders, raping and slaughtering civilians as well as losing hundreds of thousands of it’s own soldiers.
America (and the world) would experience a “plague”. Hundreds of thousands of us would die or experience long term damage to our ability to resume a reasonable life. Yet America would recover from the punishment of the Pandemic with an economy roaring faster than any other comparable country – no recession.
Rishi Sunak, PM
England would elect as prime minister a man of Indian heritage whose father was born in Kenya, his mother in Tanzania.
US Top Secret documents – sit, have a read.
Thousands of Top Secret Documents would be discovered in the bathroom of an events hall in a Florida mansion owned by a former president.
No Donald, I am not one of your ex-wives.
A woman, who was sexually assaulted by a man who would become President, would be awarded over $80 million because he defamed her. And tens of millions of Christians with “family values” would continue to support him.
Time to pony up, boys.
A judge would determine that Donald Trump and his sons had committed financial fraud and fined them a total of about $360 million. They have thirty days to come up with the money – cash or purchase an expensive bond (pledging real estate as collateral). And…they are barred from doing business in New York – he for 3 years, the boys 2 years. A “monitor” is assigned to watch over the organization.
What’s next? Get ready. We will be surprised. We spend hours and hours worrying about a future that will quite likely never happen. Here’s another example:
This cast! And it’s produced by the guys who gave us Game of Thrones.
Watch for a new Netflix show called “Death by Lightning”. It’s based on a book by Candice Millard titled “Destiny of the Republic”. It is a really well written story about a rarely discussed piece of our history. James Garfield was not supposed to be assassinated, of course. But nor was he supposed to be president. He didn’t run for the office. He DID NOT ask for the job. His responsibility at the Republican nominating convention of 1880 was to introduce John Sherman, a leading contender. But after 35 ballots that failed to arrive at the required 379 vote majority, the contenders shifted their support to Senator James Garfield of Ohio. 35 times, Republicans thought they were about to nominate someone else.
Terrific book. Great author.
To confidently assume that President Biden and Donald Trump will be facing off in November is to defy history and the things we can’t predict.
It’s still only February.
On March 31, 1968 Lyndon Baines Johnson announced that he would not be running for re-election to the presidency.
So let the pundits predict and pontificate. Let them conduct their click bait useless polling based on the mood of the moment – calls made to landlines that most people don’t answer.
Who is this? Of course I’m angry!
In the meantime, please find every young person you can and send them this website. Or share this app. Insist that they vote – despite any reservations about age or international events. Beg them. Implore them. Shame them. Drag them. Kidnap them. Whatever you have to do. Get them to vote. This will be the big one. (Or not!)
It doesn’t matter who is at the top of the ticket. It is a choice between democracy and fascism. VOTE BLUE no matter who.
Vote.org is terrific tool to use in your conversations with young people who haven’t registered to vote yet. It’s a great way for habitual non-voters to check to see if they are still registered. And for those who have moved or think that their registration may have been purged – it’s a simple way to remedy that concern.
Or….send them here for a terrific app that gets the job done. “TurnUp is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization and mobile app that comprises the largest youth-led voter registration and turnout initiative.”
Bill's Focus 