Numbers don’t lie – people do.

 
 
Statistics! When I was in school, if that subject came up as an elective course, I would have had no interest. I would have preferred history or philosophy. But now I know stats are where it’s at. Why? Because I believe in science and logic. Stats are a basic tool within those endeavors – but not for all of us.
 
Here are three examples of how stats could be used but are not. The damage done to people and enterprises ranges widely in these examples. The first is a relatively minor one. But my “logical mind” sees it as egregious. 
 
In July of 2019, the FDA published a “report” that some dogs had developed DCM (a serious canine heart ailment). While DCM had typically been a disease of Golden Retrievers, now other breeds were being diagnosed with DCM. The FDA suggested that popular “grain free” dog foods might be the cause. The speculation was that that the absence of grain may have left the foods short of taurine – a key element in dog heart health. However, no scientific evidence was presented. 
 
If you were a dog owner, your ears had perked up and you raced to examine your bag of dog food. If it was grain free, waves of guilt washed over you. Are you giving Rover a heart attack? Should you toss the bag, rush to the pet store and get some good old dog food with wheat, barley or corn? 
 
From the FDA FAQs page:  
 
“6. How many cases [of DCM] have been reported to the FDA? 

Between January 1, 2014 and April 30, 2019, the FDA received 524 case reports of diagnosed dilated cardiomyopathy. Some of these cases involved more than one animal from the same household. In the reported cases, there were 560 individual dogs diagnosed with DCM and 119 of those dogs died. There were 14 individual cats, 5 of which died. The agency received additional reports of cardiac symptoms in dogs, however, the reports did not include a confirmed DCM diagnosis.” 
 
Look at this statistically. In 2019 there were approximately 77,000,000 dogs. There were 560 cases of dogs diagnosed with DCM over a five-year period. I’ll do the math for you. That is 0.00072727 percent of the dog population. If you look at it on an annualized basis, it’s 0.00014545 percent. I am searching for words that describe this number. Miniscule? Statistically insignificant?  
 
“Grain free” dog food gained popularity as it has been thought that some dogs may have allergies to such things as wheat. After all, did Rover’s ancestors in the wild run through amber waves of grain for dinner? No, they pounced on other critters – they ate meat! 
 
For further perspective, read this article from a dog advocacy organization. Here is an excerpt: “Follow the money, it can be pretty illuminating. In this instance, know that a main funder for research into grain-free food is the Morris Animal Foundation, the foundation created by the owners of the Hill’s Science Diet brand. The three main researchers from UC Davis (Joshua Stern, Lisa Freeman, and Darcy Adin) also receive funding from Purina and Royal Canin. These are “traditional” brands who often use corn or corn products as a major ingredient, and are (ahem) not historically proponents of grain-free diets for dogs.” 
 
As dog owners, did we switch foods? Yup. The scare tactic worked. It is a good idea to rotate dog food brands periodically – to simply be sure your pup is not getting too much of something or not enough of something else. In a sense, no harm done. 
 
No harm done unless you are a smaller family owned producer of high quality dog food. Was there an industry conspiracy? Did Budweiser and Miller feel threatened by the craft beer movement?  
  

If you read the full page of the FDA website, it is clear that there is still, after over two years of research, no conclusive connection established between DCM and the dog food brands that were essentially “blacklisted” by that agency. Statistics and Logic failed. Emotions ruled.
 

 
 Example number two: Guns. I am not in the camp that wants the government to take away all the guns of responsible owners. I am not sure what the right rules for gun ownership should be. But some things seem to be obvious. And logical.  
 
1. Gun ownership should be licensed – like a fishing license or license to drive or to fly a plane. 

2. Having a record of violent and/or criminal behavior or a dangerous mental health problem are good reasons to deny a person a gun license. 

3. There is no reason why civilians should own weapons that were designed to kill as many people as fast as possible. There are plenty of rifles or guns that could be used for hunting or target practice that don’t look like a commando or terrorist would carry them.  
 
4. In order to regulate gun ownership, universal nationwide background checks should be in place. A national registry would make sense so guns could be traced – no different than auto registrations.  
 
5. Parents should be held responsible for the actions of their children surrounding gun use. 

But there is a minority of Americans who think that society should have no say when it comes to gun control. They see unlimited gun ownership as a “right”. Over the years, gun ownership has exploded in the US. And so have deaths due to guns – intentional and accidental. And our rate of suicides should frighten us all.  
 
Here is a link to another chart. There is a lot to unpack here. But a simple way to begin is to scroll down and compare the US to the UK:
The US has 120 guns per 100 inhabitants. The UK has 2.8 guns per 100 inhabitants. 
 
In 2017, the US had 12.21 firearm related deaths per 100,000 population per year.
In 2015, the UK had .20 firearm related deaths per 100,000 population per year.  
 
Sadly, emotions rule in this case as well. Why is the United States a leader in gun deaths? Why should our children go to school knowing they could be sitting next to a kid with a gun in his backpack?  

 A sitting US Congressman poses with his family for a Christmas card. They are all holding weapons. His teen age daughter sits in the middle between her parents holding an Uzi? I guess he doesn’t care about stats. I guess this politician thinks that thousands of deaths are worth his “right”. 
  
The “Christmas card” from the smiling Congressman was posted just after four kids were executed in their Michigan school by a 15-year-old. His father gave him the gun as a birthday present.
 

 
Example number three: The big one. Pandemic. Deaths vs vaccinations. 
As of this past week, the US has seen 49,000,000 reported cases of Covid 19. About 788,000 Americans have died. And we are still dying by the thousands every week. The virus is escalating again in several states.  

 And yet, millions of Americans still refuse a lifesaving vaccine. At last check, about 30% of us are still un-vaccinated. This, despite the fact that the vaccine is free, easy to obtain and has minimal short term side effects. That 30% of us endangers all of us. They enable the disease to prosper and mutate.  
 
Here is a report about the number people who have died from the Covid 19 vaccine. It is from this past summer, when the total number of deaths attributable to the vaccine (J&J blood clots) was three. Not three thousand or three hundred, but three.  
 
Anyone who uses logic would be vaccinated. I have no explanation for the bizarre thought process of 30% of Americans. Is the vaccine “untested”? Is there a “Bill Gates microchip in the vaccine”? Is the whole pandemic a “Hoax by the Democrats”? Really?   
 
This article from NPR reports is damning. ”Trump county” citizens are dying at a rate much higher than in “blue regions”. It is important to consider that the areas described may also suffer from other health risks such as obesity, malnutrition and diabetes that in combination with the virus heightens the death rate. But read it and gather your own conclusions.  
 
788,000 deaths due to Covid  
3 deaths due to the Covid vaccine.  
  

 
Emotions and misinformation have ruled. And people are dying needlessly. I guess they didn’t take the statistics course. Or they are just really lousy at figuring the odds. And I guess they just don’t care about their fellow citizens.  
 
I love and rely on statistics, don’t you? 

Biden’s Great Tests

President Biden is being tested. This is normal. It’s usually what happens to new American presidents in their first year. But Biden’s work load and our challenges are greater and more complex than for any President in our history as a republic. The times are not normal.  
 
Imagine that YOU are the American president now. 
 
China is rattling its sabers with regard to Taiwan which is one of democracy’s most important trading partners. They provide the hardware that runs civilization. The US continues its delicate dance. One wrong move and there will be an invasion of a democratic republic by Chinese communists. For you as President, the situation is quite complex. Your potential foe in such a conflict controls the production of lithium and other essential components of the batteries that power everything including the new electric vehicles you are encouraging the expansion of. Xi doesn’t know how much resolve you have.  

Russia is on the move beating the anti-democracy drum by sending thousands of troops to threaten Ukraine. Putin is assisting the dictator Lukashenko of Belarus in his attempts to destabilize Europe – literally importing immigrants and forcing them into Poland. Russian internet hackers are creating havoc with American businesses and threaten to undermine our infrastructure. Putin wants to see how far he can push you. If you are distracted by Xi and his Taiwan ambitions, he may see an opening.

As President, you would be battling a pandemic while millions are still zombie like anti-vaxxers who may catch the virus, offer it safe harbor for mutations and spread it further to all of us – especially threatening the vulnerable. That is taxing hospital systems and that is depriving others of urgent care. Your calls for all to get vaccinated are still ignored by those who buy the lies of the radical right. You are blamed for rising case numbers because you are President – by the very fools who are the cause of the mess. But you continue to employ a positive encouraging approach. Some appreciate that. Others attack you for being too lax. Vaccine and mask mandates are condemned and demanded.
 
You, as President, are blamed for rising inflation. Why? Not because anything you have done has had any impact on prices. But because your enemies want to blame you for any unfortunate things that happen on your watch. Everyone knows that Presidents don’t cause prices to rise, but facts are lost on the haters. You re-appoint Powell as Chair of the Fed angering economic progressives.  
 
An insurrection needs to be vigorously prosecuted. Yet you stand behind the idea of an independent Department of Justice – unlike your predecessor that used it as a personal law firm. This is not popular with those on the left and you are now assailed by those who voted for you.  
 
The GQP is restricting voting with new laws that limit access. And by using gerrymandering, the radical right is stacking the deck for the next election cycle. Partisan redistricting based on the recent census threaten democracy itself. The fear that Congress will become a Republican instrument of disaster following the 2022 elections adds another layer of extreme pressure to accomplish whatever is possible before that happens. As President in 2023, your time may be spent just vetoing legislation that threatens your accomplishments. 
 
The Supreme Court is about to eviscerate women’s reproductive rights and allow insane people to pack concealed weapons. The Federalist Society has groomed and guided justices to be appointed by a President who catered to the Oligarchs. The pressure grows on you as President, to expand the court to include judges that are a true representation of American’s desire to keep the government from controlling women’s bodies and to employ some sensible gun control laws. The trials of white supremacist murderers bring to light the fact that gun ownership as allowed by the court’s twisted inventive interpretation of the Constitution has created a new “wild west” of chaos and needless death. You hear chants of “Pack the Court, Joe!”  
 
Oh, lest we forget, the really big one: the horrific impacts of the Climate Crisis are forcing people to adapt, migrate or die. The “radical right” still denies that it exists. The “greens” of the left think you are doing too little. Nobody is happy with you no matter what you do. The fate of the planet is at stake. Just a little pressure. You almost wish that asteroid would hit and end the agony. 
 
Joseph Biden may be the most challenged President in American history. Look at Biden’s list of daily concerns. Our concerns. He needs our support. That doesn’t mean a lack of criticism. It does mean respect and support for his overarching goals. Our hopes of retaining and strengthening democracy are under attack in ways that are not unlike those of the 1860’s. Biden is our Lincoln. He can be our FDR as well. Let us stand with him.  

If you support President Biden’s efforts, tell him so. Send a note to the White House. It’s easy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/
 
For a really smart assessment of Biden’s presidency and the many accomplishments so far, please read this edition of Letters from an American by Professor Heather Cox Richardson.  

For an excellent review of the days events from a politically astute writer with a legal background, please read Robert Hubbell’s “Today’s Edition”. It is fact filled, realistic and offers opportunities for optimism and and action plans.

A Highly Unlikely Scenario

I had a dream. The timeline began now and concluded in the fall of 2023. Much happened that would not have been predicted and the odds of all this occurring would suggest a really bad bet. But in my dream, it all did happen and the world became a better place.  
 
Fall 2021:  
Joe Biden’s consistent and persistent engagement with members of Congress finally led to a deal on the Build Back Better Act. Nobody got what they wanted. President Biden delivered a speech on Thanksgiving Day and signed the BBB act and the bi-partisan Infrastructure bill simultaneously. This was the most significant investment in America since FDR pushed through the “New Deal”. Biden’s polling numbers are through the roof. Hard work is recognized again as a presidential attribute.  
 
Winter 2021:  
The Special Committee investigating the events surrounding the January 6 riot concluded that the event was planned by the former President and his aides, including his Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. It recommends that the Justice Department file charges. No initial response from the DOJ. There are calls for Attorney General Merrick Garlands resignation. Fox Fiction (FNC) called it all a witch hunt and barely reported on it. Instead, it continued to focus on the “caravans” of migrants moving towards the border – asserting that they are bringing Covid 19 into the country.  

 
Late Spring 2022: 
In a surprise announcement, the Justice Department revealed that it’s long running investigation into the activities of Donald Trump leading up to January 6, 2021 consisted of an attempted coup. He is charged with insurrection and sedition. He has 10 days to surrender. When he is finally reassured that his jump suit will not be orange, he turns himself in. In that 10-day period, he held a series of brutal family meetings that followed the script of the HBO series called “Succession”. Ivanka is selected to run the Trump Organization as it becomes clear to him that he will need to throw Donald Jr under the bus to save himself. And Eric is just Eric.  
 
Summer 2022:  
The State of New York and the District Attorney of Manhattan combine their investigations and formally and jointly charge Donald Trump and the entire Trump organization with tax fraud. All parties are arrested. The state began negotiating with the DOJ for priority in prosecuting the Trumps. A legal battle ensues with New York politicians claiming the superiority of “states’ rights”. Their efforts fail but they are assured their cases can be pursued when the Feds have completed their case.  
 
Fall 2022:  
The revelations of the Trump prosecutions turned the tide of American public sentiment. A wave of “Capitolgate” outrage rippled across the nation. Very few of the MAGA supporters were convinced of Trump’s guilt. Some conceded that he may have broken a few laws, but “that’s what it takes to be a great leader”. Millions of independents voted to support Democratic candidates with significant margins that were large enough to repel the scurrilous fake charges of “voter fraud”. The House of Representatives picked up 12 Democratic seats. And the Senate majority grew by two. The addition of two relatively progressive and Climate concerned Senators effectively neutered the blackmail power of Joe Manchin. Kristen Sinema who revealed that she was switching to the Republican Party lost her race to a little-known Democrat who had been a Bernie Sanders campaign worker.  
 
Spring 2023:  
With a solid majority in Congress, the pressure to reconsider the filibuster in the Senate grows too strong to ignore. While there was not enough support to eliminate it entirely (remember, it is just a rule, it is not in the Constitution) it became apparent that the vast majority of Americans wanted a voting rights bill that would neutralize political re-districting and reveal dark money contributions. Provisions that allow for mail in voting and an election day holiday are popular and are included in the bill. Accordingly, the Senate voted to carve out an exception to the filibuster for voting rights legislation.  The bill was already passed by the House. President Biden signed the bill on May 1. 
 
Summer 2023:  
President Biden introduced to Congress a sweeping bill that addressed the Climate Crisis. Subsidies to fossil fuel companies are redirected to tax breaks that encourage electric vehicles and green energy production. Taxes on corporations and the ultra-rich are raised and the funds are restricted to investing in several priorities including a new “smart” electric grid that is secure, capable of handling the enormous amount of energy being produced by wind, solar, geo thermal and the emerging “wave technology” that harvests power from the simple movement of the ocean. Millions of new jobs are created. Part of the bill dedicated money to schools to train young people for jobs in the new energy sector – as well as funds to re-train workers who have lost employment due outplacement, automation and the decline of old energy jobs. The bill passed as even some Republican Senators could no longer ignore the pleas from their constituents and donors whose homes were being flooded or burned.  President Biden signed the “Climate Action and Employment” bill on Labor Day. His subsequent polling numbers reach historic highs.

Biden also announced his decision to not run for re-election as President. Democratic wannabes scramble for attention and money.  
 
Fall 2023: 
Congress finally addressed gun violence and police reform by passing the “Weapons Safety and Police Registry” act. Two national registries are established. The National Weapons Registry restricts the ownership of guns to those who are licensed. Licensing is based on a criminal and mental health check. The National Police Registry provides all police forces and law enforcement agencies (public and private) with a data base to pre-check any applicant for a position in law enforcement. Compliance is required at every level of government or private employment – from police commander to private security guard. The bill barely passed the House. It appeared to be dead on arrival in the Senate. But a series of mass shootings by domestic terrorists claiming “militia” status tip the balance. Thus, the filibuster is set aside again – this time in the name of public safety. President Biden signs the bill. The National Guard is activated in seven states where terrorist militias continue their assaults on Democratic headquarters and political offices. There are many casualties. But America finally becomes a nation that is committed to protecting the public from rogue police and needless gun violence.  
 
President Biden has established himself as the most effective and morally compelling American political leader of the century. His legacy is epic. Vice President Harris hoped to be the “presumptive nominee” to replace him. However, in typical “Democratic fashion”, the pundits worried that a woman of color could not win. Progressives protested loudly. They asserted that Harris is simply the wrong person – both in terms of style and lack of broad support.  
 
Some political operatives have convinced Stacey Abrams to consider her candidacy. They remembered that her effort to get out the vote in Georgia was the single reason there had been a Democratic Senate. It is also noted that her speaking skills are excellent. An announcement is expected before the holidays. There were rumors that Abrams, if she announces, will consider Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Val Demings or Karen Bass as her running mate.  
 
Republicans assert that CRT has permeated every level of American society – that they were right. They were being replaced. But Biden’s programs are wildly popular. Regardless, Tucker Carlson refuses to reduce his rancor on Fox Fiction. His ratings plummet. He leaves with a separation package that will fund a real estate firm in Hungary where he will market luxury estates to rich American ex-pat bigots.  
 
Then I awakened to read the real news with a strong coffee. Maybe all this will begin when Biden returns from his trip to Europe. Dream on, Bill.  

Why you should read Heather Cox Richardson every day

I am re-posting this “Letter From an American”. Some of us have been following Professor Heather Cox Richardson with growing admiration. I encourage you to subscribe to her letters on this substack platform. It is free. But, like me, you may ultimately want to send her money.

Today’s letter should send shivers up your spine. HCR is our own Ida Tarbell. Spread the word.

October 23, 2021

Heather Cox Richardson

7 hr ago50088

There are three stories in the news today that seem to me to add up to a larger picture.

First is the story of money laundering, which seems suddenly to be all over the news. Today we learned that federal prosecutors in Detroit have broken into a massive money-laundering operation between the United States and the United Arab Emirates called “The Shadow Exchange.” They confiscated $12 million and suggest this is the tip of the iceberg.

This story comes just weeks after the release of the Pandora Papers, which detailed the ways in which the world’s wealthy hide money. The United States is one of the money-laundering capitals of the world, and the consequences of our lax financial legislation are coming home to roost. Experts say that because of the lack of transparency required in our financial transactions, hundreds of billions of dollars are laundered in the U.S. every year. 

Another story from earlier in the month by Casey Michel in Politico reveals what happened to a small town in Illinois when a Ukrainian oligarch bought a factory there apparently in order to launder money. The townspeople believed they were looking at a new, prosperous future with new investment in the town, only to watch the abandoned factory decay. And then, miraculously, another investor appeared, but that man, too, seems to have been using the purchase simply to launder money. Now, the factory is decrepit and must be dismantled at great cost to the town, along with the townspeople’s dreams.

The second story that caught my attention today is the continuing news dropping from Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen. Today we learned that a Facebook researcher created a profile that appeared to be of a political conservative North Carolina mother and that within five days, Facebook’s algorithm was steering the profile toward QAnon, a conspiracy theory touting then-president Trump as a secret warrior against a widespread pedophilia ring in the highest levels of government.

Although the fake profile did not follow those recommended groups, the profile was then inundated with groups and pages full of hate speech and disinformation. Other stories recently have emphasized that Facebook officials knew of the radicalization of users before the January 6 insurrection but declined to address the issue.

People often make the mistake of thinking that Facebook profits from the advertising it sells to users, but in fact the system works the opposite way. A media company profits from packaging users to sell to advertisers. Facebook has sliced and diced its users so that it can sell us with pinpoint accuracy to political interests eager to divide us or drive our votes. 

It appears we now have hard evidence that the company knew its algorithms were peddling disinformation to divide us, and it did not fix them.  

Tonight’s third story is that former president Trump’s loyalists set up a “command center” in mid-December at Washington, D.C.’s famous Willard Hotel to try to overturn the election. Those meeting to come up with a scheme to overturn the will of the voters included John Eastman, who wrote the memo outlining how Vice President Mike Pence could refuse to count the electors for certain states and thus throw the election to Trump; Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani; adviser Stephen K. Bannon; former New York City police commissioner Bernard Kerik, a convicted felon pardoned by Trump; One America News reporter Christina Bobb; and Trump adviser Boris Epshteyn.

It is significant that as this story has hit the news, Eastman, the author of the infamous memo, is running from it. He went to the respected conservative magazine National Review to argue, quite preposterously, that his memo was simply a thought exercise that he did not endorse. 

The very choice of the Willard, rather than Trump’s own hotel, suggests an attempt to create distance from the president, but Kerik, who rented the rooms, billed the Trump campaign for the $55,000 hotel bill. (Those participating are likely to discover that campaign activity is not part of official duties and so cannot be covered by executive privilege.) 

To me, these three stories are as illustrative of this moment as the three crucial stories in the January 1903 edition of McClure’s Magazine were of the corruption that led to the Progressive Era. In that famous 1903 magazine, investigative journalists Ray Stannard Baker, Lincoln Steffens, and Ida Tarbell exposed the political and corporate corruption that were silencing the voices of individuals in the United States and driving them into poverty.

The first two of today’s stories suggest the rise of global capital in our financial system and its power over us through the dominant influence of social media, a new technology most of us don’t understand particularly well. That power has led to the third story: the attempt of a president who has lost an election to turn to a Big Lie, spread through social media, that his victory has been stolen from him, and that his supporters must take matters into their own hands. 

KIeptocrats, autocrats, and criminals are making a strong bid to control our country.

Will they succeed? 

Maybe. But in a similar moment after 1903, the American people reasserted the rule of law.

—

Notes:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/facebook-knew-radicalized-users-rcna3581

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2021-10-23/money-laundering-operation-us-dubai-3347270.html

https://newrepublic.com/article/162321/america-money-laundering-capital-fincen

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/10/17/ukrainian-oligarch-midwestern-factory-town-dirty-money-american-heartland-michel-kleptocracy-515948

https://www.icij.org/investigations/pandora-papers/global-investigation-tax-havens-offshore/

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/10/17/ukrainian-oligarch-midwestern-factory-town-dirty-money-american-heartland-michel-kleptocracy-515948

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/10/22/jan-6-capitol-riot-facebook/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/willard-trump-eastman-giuliani-bannon/2021/10/23/c45bd2d4-3281-11ec-9241-aad8e48f01ff_story.html

Ellen F. Fitzpatrick, Muckraking: Three Landmark Articles (Bedford/St. Martin’s: 1994).

50088

A Staggering Lack of Priorities 

 
The 3 Cs of American Child Care: Carelessness, Chaos and Callousness. We are failing and it is shameful. 
 
We have liberated women to have careers. We ask that they be promoted and paid equally. But we have carelessly stopped short of helping them with child care. Affluent couples can afford expensive nannies and subsequently high-quality child-care facilities. But most couples can’t afford such and rely on a patchwork of random solutions that include some relatives or neighbors. Or Mom simply throws in the career towel for several years. Our solution for this dilemma is chaos. 
 
Politicians callously ignore the problem. The solutions are in place around the world. But American “exceptionalism” prevents us from learning from other nations that have sensible child care programs. When we suggest universal child care, it is called “socialism.” Bigots claim that couples of modest means should not have children unless they “can afford to”. Others claim that a “woman’s place is in the home”. Millions of us haven’t crawled out of the 19th Century.  
 
That is only part of the problem. If we really believe that the first few years actually form a child’s life – literally creating the next generation, why wouldn’t we pay the people who care for a child as much as we would pay teachers K through 12? Isn’t a child’s development worth more than minimum wage or slightly more? Shouldn’t the child be nurtured by a highly trained expert? 
 
If we can agree that all children deserve well paid professional child care, the big question is how do we pay for it? The answer is simple. The same way we pay for K-12. Taxes. I maintain that we should replace our careless, callous child care chaos with a universal system supported by Federal assistance paid directly to school districts. And to support the approach, Federal assistance paid directly to “Child Care Training” schools. Develop experts for every age group – for kids of about 3 months through Pre-K.  
There is plenty of money to do this. We throw trillions at stupid wars. We throw billions of subsidies to big fossil fuel companies and ethanol (corn) producers. We fail to collect hundreds of billions from the rich and corporations because we under fund the IRS. There is plenty of money for this. It is just in the wrong pockets.  
 
What kind of nation are we when we won’t invest in the future of our own progeny? Doesn’t it display foolish disregard for the future of our country? Doesn’t our lack of investment in those first few years cripple us competitively in the world – when so many other nations do it better? Please try to name a social program that is more important.  
 
American Exceptionalism at Work:  The US is a Child Care Laggard 
 
Catherine Rampell elaborates: Our Child-Care System is failing…. 

President Biden’s Plan: The American Families Plan 

 

A Call for Mandatory National Service 

A very long time ago, I found myself in Army basic training at Fort Dix, NJ. Mud on my boots or dust in my lungs. Forced marching and full pack running until we dropped. The guy next to me picked me up. He would have hailed from another part of the country and knew a culture quite foreign to me. But he picked me up. We urged each other on. And we suffered each other’s snoring in the barracks. I was grateful to have had some comradery in a hellish experience.  
 
I was lucky enough to have never faced combat. And I hated almost every aspect of a military experience. But I learned how to appreciate fellow humans who I would otherwise have never encountered. Sure, that happens in college. But there is nothing like the stress of real physical challenges to bond people.   

Many nations have some form of mandatory military service. Germany, Israel, and Sweden are examples. I don’t recommend it. Although it would be smart to diversify our armed forces. We might be less apt to jump into ill-advised invasions of nations if the sons and daughters of the rich were required to participate in the charge. Our military is now comprised of a very narrow representation of our populace. Time to diversify. But I would not suggest that military service be required. I hated it. It went against my core nature.  
 
But I do suggest a form of mandatory national service. It could be military. It could also be hospital work or building infrastructure – think CCC of the 1930’s. It could be helping out in schools. It could be learning a trade working in a town that needs the help. It could be as simple as delivering water to the many thousands of Americans who do not have access to potable water. It could be mentoring a refugee or new immigrant.  
 
The range of these activities would only be limited by our imaginations. In fact, a “draftee” might have the opportunity to make a proposal. Whatever the endeavor, it would need to be of service to others.  
 
And after this service, pick your time frame…maybe one or two years, the young person would have a full boat scholarship to either college or a trade building education. Perhaps the “national service” could be woven into an apprenticeship that could be refined after “graduation”. Smarter minds than mine can come up with a great system. They could start by looking at the successes in other countries. That’s not a natural tendency in this “exceptional America”. But it could save a lot of mistakes. We could improve on their national service systems – tailoring it to our country.  
 
I would add another dimension to this plan for national service. There should be no deferments. With the exception of very serious illness or incapacity, all young people would be required to participate. Whether it was helping provide internet to rural areas or being an orderly in an assisted care facility or teaching computer skills to the elderly – there could be an assignment that would be appropriate. A young person with challenges would only grow by being involved in helping others.  
 

The value to society is obvious. The help young people could provide could be immeasurably valuable. But the value to each individual would be the powerful influence of working alongside someone who hailed from a very different culture. I was with fellow soldiers whose accents were so thick that I had to respond to many comments with “sorry, again” or “what?”. We squabbled. We laughed. We endured. And at the end of basic training, we promised to stay in touch. We didn’t, of course. But I remember becoming friendly and yes, even dependent, on someone who I would have dismissed because he talked funny. We found empathy for each other. An emotion that is all too rare in our society right now.  
 
Here are some recent articles that explore this further: 

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-mandatory-military-service 
 
https://www.procon.org/headlines/mandatory-national-service-top-3-pros-and-cons/  
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/02/opinion/compulsory-national-service-america.html  
 
https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2021/05/12/mandatory-national-service-from-the-political-frying-pan-and-into-the-legal-fire/?slreturn=20210822131114 

Reflections on a sloppy educational system 

“U.S. job openings hit record high as employers struggle to find workers”

Reuters September 8, 2021

“There is not an available, skilled construction worker out there. They’re all working. They’re working overtime.” said Andy Van Kleunen, CEO of the National Skills Coalition, about the shortage of skilled workers needed to fulfill President Biden’s infrastructure plan. 

In a September 12th interview on NPR, Van Kleunen lamented that there had been a huge shortage of workers before the onset of Covid. Now with the heightened demand for construction, projects will be delayed simply for the lack of skilled workers. This shortfall of employees may be escalated by an epic infrastructure plan. A plan that will be stalled out needlessly.  

How lame. How ridiculous. There is a vast swath of American workers unemployed due to outsourcing and mostly, automation. Factory closings and jobs replaced by technology have been the seeds of discontent all across our nation. Isn’t this the root of much of the right-wing anger at the “elites”…. at the “system”?  

We have failed to connect people with employment. We have let our system of education glide aimlessly with very little attention to the ways we could train people to perform highly valued work. There is a guy in Ohio whose factory job vanished. He could be helping to expand our Internet. There is a kid in Indiana who has no clue what his future of work will be. He may attend college and have a head full of interesting stuff but he won’t know how to code or build a robot.  

The National Skills Coalition is attempting to connect the dots. Read how they are working to knit together education and employment. This is laudable beyond words. What makes me crazy is that this initiative is not completely woven into our education system. We have school and we have jobs. But students float until they find some luck and/or a mentor. I was lucky. Many are not.  

In a classic “American Exceptionalism” manner we regard the success of other nations with dismissal. But Germany has this problem figured out. It could provide us with a model – but “we know better”. Perhaps if we humbled ourselves in the face of this enormous problem, we might learn from others. Read about the “dual studies” program in Germany. Is it perfect? Of course, not. But it works well and could be adapted to our country if we had the will to do it.  

Of course, there are internships and work study programs as well as apprenticeships here. A school like Northeastern University has always been a fine example how to actually prepare students for meaningful employment. But it really should be the standard of our educational process. And I would make the case that preparing a young person for employment should begin in high school – not just college.  

When my Dad was a kid, there were three high schools to choose from. One was “business” focused, another was “college preparatory” and the third was “trade school”. Dad went to “Trade”. He learned a skill that served him well after returning from WWII. As I was growing up, a “trade school” didn’t exist. High schools worshiped college. I had to go to college or be a flunky.  College did nothing for me. But that’s a story for another day.

I recently read a popular novel where the central character has graduated from college with a degree in “Norse Mythology”. The school was Harvard. The book was whimsical but the truth is that going to college to “broaden one’s horizons” is a luxurious and antiquated notion. The fellow in the book might have been happier and more “successful” if he had apprenticed as plumber or carpenter. Try to find one of those right now when you have a project around your home. A disconnected society, indeed. 

I end with an applicable irony. One of the first lessons we learn in business is that when the other company has a successful idea, you adopt it. You take that idea and make it yours. When I was running “big box” stores that was a common practice and just common sense. We are proud of our “capitalistic, market driven” country. But we fail to apply the basic principles of competition to our educational system. Other nations are beating us at what we could be the very best at. We certainly have the money to educate and prepare every young person in the United States. And we have the money to retrain those who are displaced by a changing workplace. The money is just in the wrong pockets.  

In the meantime, Congress will argue over an infrastructure bill that could transform us. But if passed, it will be handicapped…knee capped actually, because the money won’t have anyone to hire. Dumb and dumber, I think. We can do much better. 

Accepting Covid as “endemic”

The Corona virus will never totally go away. We can’t eradicate it. We will just learn how to live with it. But how?

That is the concept that two Atlantic articles present. Sarah Zhang suggests in an August 17th piece in the Atlantic that we must accept that it will always be with us just like the other 4 Corona viruses that cause the common cold and…then there is the flu. Per the CDC, the latter kills 12,000 to 61,000 Americans per year. We live with that. It never occurs to us to really change our behavior much. Most of us get a flu shot. We just stay away from folks who say they have a “bug”.

Maybe, over time, we’ll just learn to accept to accept Covid as another bug. Maybe we’ll just glaze over when we hear that only 99,000 people a year are dying from Covid. But hey, it’s not a half million! And maybe…with enough people vaccinated, it will be a lot less.

Yesterday, Celine R. Gounder published another article in the Atlantic that supports this proposition. Here is her concluding paragraph:

”Because early data on vaccine effectiveness reinforced the perception that the vaccines could block all infections, news that they do not has unnecessarily shaken many Americans’ confidence. The goal isn’t to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 infections. We can’t, no matter how many booster shots the United States gives. The goal is to slow the spread, save lives, and eventually turn COVID-19 into something much less deadly—something more like the flu.”

So maybe that’s the journey. We get to stop thinking of Covid as a pandemic or a plague. Just another ailment. Something they will call “endemic”. Which means: “a disease or condition regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.” Just part of life (or death if you are unlucky or careless.)

And what if we were to grab a lesson from this nightmare? What if we were to make just a few changes in our behavior? Getting vaccinated would be obvious. That’s going to take a lot of peer pressure, financial penalties and regulation. Wearing a mask on a regular basis in public buildings is another idea. I noticed, along with many friends, that last winter I did not get a cold or the flu. Hmm. If I added up my lost time from colds and the flu on an annual basis it would be roughly anywhere from 14 to 30 days. That’s a big chunk of my time to suffer discomfort and be unproductive. Hmm.

And then there is the uncomfortable truth about building ventilation. It is currently safer to be in an airplane than a school or restaurant from an air quality point of view. There would be a lot of jobs created if we seriously addressed this. It could be in conjunction with retrofitting them to be more energy efficient. Not a crazy idea.

Here are the concluding paragraphs of Sarah Zhang’s article. I think it contains some practical ideas. The economy doesn’t shut down. We live good lives. But it will require most people to be vaccinated and some minor behavioral adjustments. To do otherwise is to offer the virus an opportunity to morph into something far worse. Are you in?

“The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University.

With the flu, we as a society generally agree on the risk we were willing to tolerate. With COVID-19, we do not yet agree. Realistically, the risk will be much smaller than it is right now amid a Delta wave, but it will never be gone. “We need to prepare people that it’s not going to come down to zero. It’s going to come down to some level we find acceptable,” Downs says. Better vaccines and better treatments might reduce the risk of COVID-19 even further. The experience may also prompt people to take all respiratory viruses more seriously, leading to lasting changes in mask wearing and ventilation. Endemic COVID-19 means finding a new, tolerable way to live with this virus. It will feel strange for a while and then it will not. It will be normal.”

Where are the teachers?

One of the features of aging is some perspective. You remember how different things were years ago. How different people were. I remember some religious leaders practicing what they preached. Or at least they preached the good stuff. Love of others, no matter who they were. Welcoming all to the Table. Sheltering the immigrant. Feeding the poor. Stuff like that. They were acting like real leaders setting an example of compassion for “others”. They were teaching a way of living. If they were “Christians” they might actually act like it. What happened?

Perhaps it was the money. Look at Joel Osteen. Or Pat Roberts. Faith based on prosperity, wealth? Religion embracing right wing hate? It has worked. They are rich. They are performers. People shower them with money. Success! For them.

It’s easy to dismiss most religious leaders. As an agnostic, I am tempted to lump them all into a category with hating nutcases like Paula White and Franklin Graham. But that might be a mistake.

I found an exception. I like him a lot. Here is a taste. Plucked right from his website – which I encourage you to read, bookmark and share.

”If you claim to be a “God and Country “Bible-believing Evangelical,” great. But if you have contempt for immigrants or bristle at white privilege or oppose safeguards in a pandemic, your Christianity is ineffectual at best and at worst, it’s toxic. You might want to rethink something.

If you believe because you prayed a magic prayer to accept Jesus at summer camp when you were 13,  that you can inflict any kind of adult damage to the people and the world around you and you’ll still be golden, while gentle, loving, benevolent atheists and Muslims go to hell—you’re doing religion wrong.

If you’re passionately anti-religious because you think belief in a higher power is abject fairy tale nonsense, that’s fine too. But if you’re intolerant to difference and intellectually arrogant in the face of people who’ve reached different conclusions than you have, you are simply replicating hypocrites without the creeds.

Yeah, I know many of you reading this will write this all off as universalistic heresy, and I understand why. When you’ve been raised to believe that righteous and rightness are the same thing, you’ll do all you can to defend the story in your heads that tells you you’re one of the good guys.

But if whatever your religious affiliation or spiritual convictions or confession of faith doesn’t result in a life of greater empathy, then what’s the point?

If you are less loving because of your religion no matter what that religion is, you got it wrong.”
John Pavlovitz: Stuff That Needs to be Said

Empathy and Priorities

There are more important things in the world than the current Afghanistan crisis. While one would have to be quite the hardened soul to not feel the pain and suffering at the airport near Kabul, I think the tragedy is disproportionately reported. Yes, Jane Ferguson of The PBS News Hour presents a powerful picture of the suffering and frustration at that location. I think she is headed for a Pulitzer. But while it is horrific and emotionally wrenching, I think it is getting too much press. Because it is the type of drama that video loves. People hanging off planes as they ascend…

From a political perspective, the fruit hangs so low, we are stepping on it. I heard Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska raking President Biden across the coals because “even if one American is left behind….”. So I get it. The political football is in the air. Who will catch it and gain the most yardage? Well, dear reader who may never read me again, I call bullshit.

Let’s look at all the plans that were not selected for exiting a twenty year boondoggle mismanaged from the start by three other presidents. I am waiting. I don’t hear anyone offering a better plan – just that Biden has mismanaged the exit. I hear people kicking the leader of our country when he is employing every available resource to remove as many people as possible without re-igniting the war.

What would have been a better scenario? If we HAD had the intelligence that the Afghan Army and it’s cowardly leaders would just melt into the countryside, what should we have done? Send in a 100,000 troops to expedite the removal? Bombing? Drone attacks? More innocent casualties? Isn’t that the ultimate oxymoron of an exit strategy? Should we have simply left earlier and would that have caught the Taliban by surprise? I think they were always ready to fill the vacuum. They proved they could activate and dominate in a matter of days. They have been re-arming and recruiting for years.

So what, indeed, is more important than the “Afghanistan Exit”? Here’s my list:
1. Voting rights. If we don’t restore democracy via the Voting Rights Acts, the misinformed minority will win election after election. We will be ruled by anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers and the puppets of the rich. And we won’t be able to address number 2 which is really number 1.
2. The Climate Crisis affects billions of people and trillions of organisms. Cataclysmic events are unfolding as we speak and they are viewed by too many as aberrations. The Earth is screaming at us. But we’re too busy watching one small country grapple with the same cultural issues that have consumed it for eons.
3. The Covid Virus is not going away. The Delta variant is just part of an endless process of mutation. We need to accept that it will be with us – just like other Corona based illnesses like the common cold, like the flu – maybe forever. Vaccinations must be mandated and masking should be basic to our lives. Our ability to just do basic healthcare is breaking down. Health care workers are walking away. Thousands of professionals are not being replaced. Americans can’t be treated because hospitals are full. We are sending ourselves into third world status. And because of a loud misinformation minority it is going to get worse. Thank you Fox News owned by an Australian billionaire.
4. On January 6, 2021 Trump supporters invaded the Capitol Building interrupting the orderly process of certifying the Presidential election. It was an attempted coup. It was an insurrection. The Presidential election of November 2020 was deemed the “best run and safest election in our history” by the Republican cyber security expert overseeing US elections. The investigation into how that rebellion was financed, assisted, encouraged and enabled is under way. There must be accountability for all who participated – not just the guy dressed as an animal. Emotionally, this could be my number 1. But I can’t really believe I am saying this…there are more critical problems like number 2 (that should be number 1 after number 1 is addressed).

That’s my short list. There is much more. Can we get our act together or are we just going to allow the latest most visually compelling news story to paralyze us? Afghanistan is a mess. So are many other countries that need help. Many. But maybe we should start at home with number 1. Save democracy. Then save the world.
Good luck to us all.
PS: Here is an excellent opinion piece from Frank Bruni at the NYTimes.
Stop Politicizing Afghanistan